I originally posted this on Twitter – but thought it may be easier for people to consume in a format like this. So here’s the deal:
I did a deep dive into some offensive stats to see what’s working (if anything), what’s not, and if there’s a path to fixing any of the dysfunction plaguing IU’s offense. Here’s what I found:
- 17% of IU’s offense happens in transition. They score 1.04 points per possession in transition, good enough to put them in the 63rd percentile in the nation. Not great, not terrible.
- This means that 83% of IU’s offense happens in the half court, where their scoring dips to .88 points per possession.
- With transition offense yielding better results than half court offense (duh), a way to increase their amount of transition possessions could be to ditch the packline defense and pick up the pressure. The Hoosiers have only pressed on 5% of their opponents possessions, but they’re only yielding .77 points per possession when they do.
- 20% of IU’s offense comes after timeouts (whether this be a media timeout or called by either team). In these situations, they’re only scoring .81 points per possession, which puts them in the 34th percentile in the country.
- What’s very concerning about this stat is that a lot of these situations occur when IU calls a timeout because their opponent has gone on a run. They’re failing to score at an efficient rate coming out of these, so the timeouts aren’t really doing much to stifle runs and get their offense back in order.
- IMHO, these are situation that Archie must have go-to sets & ditch their motion.
- One of the most concerning stats I found has to do with post-ups. A lot of IU’s offense is centered around trying to get their bigs in post-up situations. 16% of their offense revolves around this, yet IU only scores .79 points per possession (17th percentile) on plays that have post-ups. That’s an abysmal number & the Hoosiers should steer clear of these plays.
- Another concerning stat: 14% of IU’s offensive possessions end with a jump shot off of the dribble. In these situations, IU is scoring .62 points per possession (8th percentlie). At this point, it should pretty much be a non-negotiable with the staff that there should be no jump shots taken off of the dribble unless absolutely necessary.
- On the flip side, IU is pretty good on spot-up jumpers. When you dive into individual stats on the spot-up jumpers, there’s some room for hope. The following percentages are effective field goal percentage, which weights 3-point shots since they are worth more points:
- Durham 55% (80th percentile)
- Green 62.9% (89th percentile)
- Hunter 57.1% (86th percentile)
- Phinisee 70.8% (93rd percentile)
- These numbers tell me that Archie has to find a way to get more spot-up opportunities for these guys. To me, one of these easiest ways to do that is to ditch the 3-out, 2-in approach and go to 4-out, 1-in. This allows for better spacing & driving lanes. Better driving lanes = more opportunities for drive & kicks for spot-up shots.
I think the Hoosiers have played plenty of games to draw conclusions from what the stats are telling them. Ditch the post-ups, no shots off of the dribble, create more transition opportunities, and find ways to create spot-up opportunities.
Now that’s obviously easier said than done, but if IU wants to fix their offensive woes, there has to be some changes made. They can’t keep sticking with what they were doing & expecting different results.